First Edition

I've often wished for more time to write...

But this isn't quite what I had in mind.

Welcome to the newsletter. This is an experiment. Like a lot of experiments, it may lead to nothing. Most newsletters I've subscribed to don't last very long, and I make no promises that this one will either. But like a whole lot of other people this month, I suddenly find myself with unexpected free time. What better opportunity to try it? How often this comes out will depend on both my interest and yours; perhaps a relative flurry at first, given the pace of news, then settling down later. The topics may change, too, but today I'm including material on the COVID-19 epidemic, its economic effects (particularly in the hospitality industry), and how to make the best of social distancing. I expect future editions will get into more diverse topics. Thanks for subscribing, and if you have questions or suggestions, please get in touch.

What I've been writing

It's hard to pay attention to anything except COVID-19 right now, so like everyone else I've been obsessing about that. This first piece is a little doom and gloomy (but see the end of this newsletter, too, for something lighter). Given an unexpected surfeit of free time due to the cancellation of all of my work travel and events this month, I revisited David Quammen's 2012 book Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic. If you'd like to take a step back from coronavirus coverage for a broader view of how diseases make the leap from other animals to humans, and what that tells us about how to respond now, this blog post has you covered.

I also used this time to finally get my own recent book, The Rediscovery of Tobacco, available for sale on the Apple Books platform. This was a surprisingly arduous task for a PC user, requiring hours of workarounds and renting time on a Mac cloud service. (Amazon, in contrast, allows anyone with a web browser to upload books to their Kindle Direct Publishing platform.) But the deed is done! If you've been holding out to read the book on an Apple device, you're out of excuses. The hardcover of the book is also now available for a discounted price of $16.67 from Amazon and, of all places, Walmart. The digital and paperback editions put more money in my pocket, but you deserve nice things. Treat yourself to the hardcover if you want it. Jacob Sullum reviewed the book alongside Sarah Milov's The Cigarette for a recent issue of Reason, so check that out for a preview of what's in it.

How bad will this get?

That's the big question right now. This report from Imperial College London is getting a lot of attention, and it's worth reading if you have the time. In brief, it attempts to model three strategies for dealing with the virus: 1) doing nothing, 2) mitigation, and 3) suppression. Doing nothing results in an estimated 2.2 million deaths in the US. Given that we're not doing nothing, the mitigation scenario is probably the one to consider for an idea of how badly this may end up. Mitigation in this model means quarantine of suspect cases and their close contacts as well as social distancing of the elderly and vulnerable populations. The authors predict that this strategy leads to a single, short-term epidemic that results in more than 1.1 million deaths.

Under this model, that leaves suppression as the only strategy that prevents mass mortality. Suppression adds to the above with social distancing of the entire population, as many of us are voluntarily or involuntarily enduring now. For this to work, these measures need to be taken early to prevent hospital resources from being overwhelmed. The authors also predict that restrictions will need to stay in place for a long time: Not just weeks or months, but until an effective vaccine is developed (18 months or more). Improved testing may allow for some relaxation, or fluctuating periods of more and less strict distancing, but adopting the suppression strategy may drastically change our lives for a long time to come. Keep in mind that this only one model, but it is one to take seriously. This is not just a bad flu.

Some additional recommended reading: The CDC reports that many US hospitalizations are of patients under 54. Josh Barro on why it's a positive sign that people are finally taking this seriously. Bonnie Kristian on how dismissive attitudes toward the epidemic reveal Americans' contempt for old age. For general information on the virus, this frequently updated page at Our World in Data.

Stimulus

In 2008, at the height of the last recession, I quit my job at a think in DC to move across country to Portland for its creative, collaborative culinary scene. It's sad and surreal to watch it all come crashing down in just a few days. I've lost quite a bit of work from it myself, and a large share of my friends have become suddenly and entirely unemployed. There will be a lot to cover as the economic fallout from this spirals outward. Recommended reading: NYT restaurant reviewer Pete Wells on the end (for now) in New York. Derek Thompson on why restaurants "will need a miracle." Michael Russell on why the seemingly obvious pivot to take-out is often an unworkable business strategy. Devra First on the world we're losing. And a very Portland response to the epidemic, though one that highlights the plight of another group of workers whose job has become suddenly illegal, exotic dancers.

Social distancing

OK, I promised something lighter for the end. We're all in this together, yet separately, so I see this section of the newsletter as a way of making our social isolation a little more bearable: cocktail recipes, book and music recommendations, kitchen tips, who knows what else. We'll see how it develops.

To drink: For this first edition, I'm directing you to a fun piece I wrote for Inside Hook. You're stuck at home, your favorite bars have been shut down, and you're raiding the liquor cabinet. I wrote up suggestions for what to make with the dusty bottles you may have lying around: Galliano, Drambuie, even Malibu. Check it out and finally put those spirits to use.

To read: We could probably all benefit from some escapism right now. This strikes me as an apt time to dig into Chinese sci-fi author Liu Cixin's "Remembrance of Earth's Past" trilogy, beginning with The Three-Body Problem. It's a gripping distraction from the pandemic that will also get you thinking about the vast time scales of civilization, the ways that humanity can adapt in times of crisis, and a view of the world in which America isn't assumed to take the lead on every challenge.