How do we get out of this?

New subscribers, welcome. We've doubled in numbers in just two days. I'm thinking this newsletter might fall into a Tuesday/Friday delivery pattern; we'll see how it goes. (Is today a Friday? I'm losing track already.) Let's get to it.

How we get to relax (the rules)

In the first newsletter, I wrote about a study suggesting that social distancing measures may have to stay in place for a long time to achieve suppression of SARS-CoV-2: not just a few weeks, but more than a year. That's a daunting prospect, but there are options that may help avert it. The problem is that if we simply stop social distancing, the virus can re-emerge, cause another sudden spike in infections, and bring us right back where we started. Instead, we need to think about the conditions that would make it possible for us to re-emerge without spreading the virus anew. Some speculation on ways that might happen:

Testing -- If testing for infection becomes widespread, fast, and accurate, then it will be easier to relax some of our social distancing measures and focus on isolating confirmed cases and their close contacts. This Medium post lays out the basic idea, though I can't vouch for the specific numbers. Widespread testing appears to be key to South Korea's relative success at containing the virus, and they are way ahead of the US on this front. See also, Iceland. Another promising sign: Oxford reports development of a home test that can deliver accurate results in just 30 minutes.

Immunity -- For similar reasons, people that have developed immunity to the disease could also relax social distancing. Knowing who has developed immunity requires a different kind of testing. Instead of looking for signs of the virus itself, we're looking for signs of antibodies that indicate a person has been exposed to it and developed the tools to fight it off. Work is proceeding on developing these blood tests. One caveat: We don't yet know how long immunity will last or how the virus will mutate. See this Twitter thread from Nicholas Christakis for more.

Vaccines -- An effective vaccine is obviously among the most desired solutions right now. Unfortunately, most estimates put this about 18 months away; the Guardian explains the process here. Is it possible that with unprecedented resources and attention it could happen sooner? I hope so.

Treatments -- Effective treatments could lessen the danger or prevent infection, but it's unclear how effective these might be and there is the risk of side-effects. STAT has updates on drugs and vaccines in development and trials of existing drugs.

Summer heat and humidity -- Many have been holding out hope that this new virus will dissipate in warmer weather, showing seasonality like the flu. From what I can tell, current evidence for that is inconclusive, or maybe the virus is just so good at infecting humans that seasonal effects won't matter.

One last possibility -- What if we're overreacting and the virus is less dangerous than believed? Many arguments for this position have been made in bad faith, especially in the early days, but there is some dissent from the current consensus. John Ioannidis made the case for this on Tuesday. He's a qualified voice, and his most famous work is about the factors that lead scientists to reach wrong conclusions. That said, his is a minority view; here's a direct response from another epidemiologist in the same publication. I'm personally unconvinced, but it's worth acknowledging that the argument is out there.

Stimulus

Bars, restaurants, and other hospitality businesses continue to find creative ways to stay afloat during this crisis, especially when burdensome regulations are relaxed. The Tax and Trade Bureau (the main agency regulation alcohol production) has stepped out of the way to authorize distilleries to produce hand sanitizer. Jack Rose in DC, one of the world's best whiskey bars, is offering its entire inventory for sale alongside to-go deli containers of Manhattans. In Oregon, some breweries are discovering that their licenses already permit them to offer home delivery. 232 Bleecker in New York is offering "dinner bonds": $75 now gets you $100 when they re-open.

Alt-weeklies and lifestyle publications are also getting hit by the loss of ad revenue. As an author, book-lover, and longtime resident of Portland, I'm sad to hear that Powell's and other bookstores are getting walloped, too.

What should be done to address the broader economic turmoil? Economist Tyler Cowen offers a very readable six-page list of ideas. Michael Brendan Dougherty makes the case for sending assistance checks to everyone and encouraging the well-off to spend them in ways that help those who've lost their livelihoods. Oren Cass suggests we view payments to businesses not as bailouts but as justified compensation for being forced to shutdown in the public interest. Jack Shafer argues for a little more skepticism when it comes to bailing out specific industries, especially those with connections to the current president.

Social Distancing

To read: We're all angry at viruses right now, but the microscopic world isn't all bad. One of my favorite popular science books of the past few years is Ed Yong's I Contain Multitudes, which explores our interconnectedness with microbes and how our relationships evolve in surprising, sometimes beneficial ways. (Yong also has a new piece today in The Atlantic on how the new coronavirus works.)

To drink: My friend Jennifer Colliau is having a tough month. First her Oakland cocktail bar, Here's How, was shut down at the end of February -- not by coronavirus, but by NIMBYs. Now her other business making high-quality cocktail syrups is taking a hit from the closure of so many bars and restaurants, which are her primary customers. Fortunately, she also sells her Small Hand Foods syrups directly through Amazon. Consider picking up a bottle of orgeat, passion fruit syrup, or whatever strikes your fancy. If you choose the orgeat, here's a beer cocktail you can make from my first book, Cocktails on Tap, the Mai Ta-IPA:

1 1/2 oz IPA
1 oz aged rum
1 oz white rum
1 oz fresh lime juice
3/4 oz orgeat
1/2 oz orange curacao or triple sec

Shake everything (even the IPA) with ice, then strain into an ice-filled glass. Garnish with cherries, limes, or something tropical.

Photo credit: David L. Reamer