The end is nigh
One way or another, this dreadfully long and all-consuming election will soon be over, and hopefully soon after that the obligation to pay attention to Donald Trump will be over, too. There’s a good chance you’ve already voted, especially if you live in Oregon, where we get our ballots by mail, fill them out at our leisure, and mail them back in or place them at any of the many conveniently located dropboxes. I plan on taking a sunny bike ride to deliver mine later this afternoon. If your state doesn’t make it this easy to vote, demand better.
On the off chance you live in Oregon and haven’t voted yet, I’ll take one last shot at persuading you to vote no on Measure 108. My latest op/ed for the Oregonian makes a brief case for harm reduction and against regressive taxes on cigarettes and vapor products. (For a deeper dive into how to think about these issues, there’s also my feature from September on The Future of Tobacco.)
On the even more unlikely chance that you are an undecided voter who leans libertarian and speaks Norwegian, my case for Biden is now available in translation at Liberaleren. (Original here.)
This week is also Sherry Week and I’ve been invited to host a virtual happy hour on Wednesday. Let’s hope the news gives us reason to make it genuinely happy. Grab a bottle of sherry and join me on Zoom at 5:30 pm PST. (Links: event page and the direct Zoom link.)
Recommended reading
I’ll keep it brief, since we’re all preoccupied with the election.
Libertarians for Biden watch: Whenever I write about Trump, people on Twitter tell me I need to focus less on his personal flaws and more on actual policy. Ilya Somin does precisely that and still judges Biden to be far better than Trump for libertarian priorities.
Biden will almost certainly win the popular vote, but the Electoral College is more complicated. Forecasting site 538 places the chances of a Trump win around 10%. Here’s a post outlining the ways that could happen.
This is a fun interview with mathematician Jordan Ellenberg about how to think about election probabilities and why there’s nothing to be gained by stressing out about them too much this late in the game.
If you’ve read Martin Gurri’s The Revolt of the Public, you’ll be interested in this interview with him on the Trump years and the challenge of governing without a shared reality on COVID. (And if you haven’t read his book, you definitely should.)
I guarantee this piece from Nicholas Clairmont is different from anything else you’re reading about the election: on the resiliency of American institutions and culture, not panicking, and becoming more “small-c conservative” in the age of Trump.
Just one piece on COVID: If you’re confused about how to think about the risks of transmission in indoor environments, this popular article in El Pais has useful illustrations of the factors that affect spread in private homes, classrooms, and bars and restaurants.
Social distancing
To hike: It’s going to be a long winter and a long week ahead, so I got out into the Oregon woods this weekend to hike the Latourell Falls loop for the first time. It’s relatively easy, scenic, and not too crowded right now. Recommended if you’re around Portland.
To listen: We may or may not go into the last month of 2020 with the knowledge that a tolerable president and an effective vaccine are on the way, but at least we'll have a new album of live recordings from Belle and Sebastian. “My Wandering Days Are Over” is available now on Spotify and the band shot this fun socially distanced music video for “The Boy with the Arab Strap,” a highlight of their lives shows in which the audience is invited on stage for a dance party.
To drink: Among those who imbibe, it seems like everyone is planning ahead for what to drink on election night. I have a couple bottles ready to go for celebratory outcomes: my favorite bottle mezcal in the house to toast a Trump defeat and a bottle of Texas single malt whiskey in the unlikely event that my home state turns blue. I’ll believe it when I see it, but it’s encouraging to even consider the possibility.
Given that it’s likely to be a long night of coverage, I probably won’t make many cocktails. One option I might stir up is the Appetizer a l’Italienne from William “The Only William” Schmidt’s 1892 book The Flowing Bowl. With vermouth and Fernet-Branca, it’s intensely flavorful while remaining relatively low-proof. And if the night goes poorly? I’ll have a bottle of straight fernet on hand to drown my sorrows.
2 oz sweet vermouth
1 oz Fernet-Branca
1/4 oz absinthe
scant 1/4 oz rich simple syrup
Stir with ice and serve up.
A favor
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