Where to begin?

I’ll begin with my own writing, only because it’s my newsletter. It’s not relevant to the issues at hand, having been written in February, but that’s how it goes sometimes writing for print. For the June issue of Reason, I reviewed Quit Vaping, a new Dr. Oz-endorsed anti-vaping screed published by Penguin. It’s as bad as it sounds, and my review also goes into the larger media narratives that distort public perception of e-cigarettes. Check it out if you’re into that kind of thing. (I’ve been writing for Reason since 2008, but this is my first contribution to the print edition. It won’t be the last!)

Riot(ing) Cops

I’m horrified at the abuses committed by police in the past couple weeks, beginning with the murder of George Floyd, and equally amazed that the sustained protests have inspired a genuinely worldwide movement against violent policing. This is long overdue, and it’s been difficult to read (or write) about anything else. I don’t have anything original to add, but here’s a sampling of what I’ve been reading for the past week or so:

My friend Radley Balko has been writing about the militarization of police for years. Like many libertarians, my awareness of the issue is largely due to his influence. At The Washington Post, he has a very good piece on how police violence is experienced differently by white and black Americans.

On the extent of the problem, I recommend revisiting this 2016 Granta article using statistical techniques to estimate the number of homicides committed by police in the United States. It concludes that likely one-third of all homicides committed by someone the victim doesn’t know are committed by police.

If you say you're worried about big government and don't see American police culture as one of its most dangerous manifestations, you're doing it wrong. Clark Neily of the Cato Institute woke up early on Sunday to explain why the American criminal justice system is “rotten to the core.”

It’s typically not difficult to get conservatives to oppose unions — unless we’re talking about police unions. Peter Suderman makes the case for busting them up.

How police respond to protests is part of what determines whether they remain peaceful. Maggie Koerth and Jamiles Lartey explain why it’s better to de-escalate than dominate.

Domination, however, is what cops themselves often prefer. Conservative defense attorney T. Greg Doucette has been compiling videos on Twitter of police abuse documented just during the current protests. The thread has surpassed 400 entries.

These events can and should be accurately described as cops violently rioting against the idea of being held accountable. Jamelle Bouie nails it.

Police violence doesn’t occur in a vacuum. Read Adam Serwer on the cultural and institutional forces that encourage it, including Donald Trump.

Lastly, I recommend this essay by David French on being conservative and becoming a better listener on matters of race.

Covering COVID

This is the first time other issues have moved COVID downward in the newsletter, but we are far from out of the woods on this. More than 10,000 Americans have died from the disease in the time since I sent out the previous issue. We are going into re-openings unprepared, having squandered the opportunity to massively expand our test and trace capacity. While other countries have successfully suppressed the virus, the United States continues to endure thousands of deaths each week. Responding to COVID has been a test of citizenship from the beginning: how to act responsibly given the inherent uncertainties surrounding a new virus and the incompetence of our leaders. That’s as true now as it was back in March, when we still had a chance at developing a better collective response. Now it’s on you to decide how to live your life, and how to avoid endangering others around you, as we head into summer.

Personally, I’m cautiously expanding my social interactions to include outdoor meet-ups at a distance with close friends. We’re going to learn a lot about the potential for outdoor spread in the next few weeks, and I’m hopeful that cities will continue expanding options for businesses to operate outdoors. In the short-term, I intend to keep avoiding things like spending time at restaurants until we know more about the risks. (Had America succeeded at building up its testing capacity, I’d feel much better about dining out or restarting activities like soccer, which I miss dearly.) When considering your own options, it’s worth considering what professional epidemiologists say they’re doing themselves. The NYT polled more than 500 of them about when they expect to feel safe returning to various activities, and the results are illuminating. My guess is epidemiologists are more risk averse than the general population, but their answers are a good baseline for making your own decisions.

A few articles worth reading:

The Atlantic is great as always. Alexis Madrigal and Robinson Meyer provide a detailed snapshot of where we stand. You should also read Ed Yong on “long-haulers,” the mostly younger patients who don’t die from COVID, but whose agonizing symptoms last for months.

Also in The Atlantic, Conor Friedersdorf interviews Tyler Cowen on the failings of the regulatory state during the pandemic. Relatedly, the NYT takes a deep dive into how the CDC has blown it.

I’ve been hoping that someone would write a good summary about interpreting COVID test results in a Bayesian way. This is the best I’ve come across so far. Bottom line: the likelihood that a test result is true depends on the accuracy of the test itself, a patient’s symptoms and contacts, and the underlying prevalence in a population. If you’re thinking about getting tested, you need to understand these issues before relying on the result.

The beginning of the end for Trump?

Let’s end on a hopeful note. Though it’s too early to say for sure, it feels like the past week might actually be a turning point at which conservatives and Republicans begin to face the truth about whom they have elected to the presidency. Colin Powell publicly endorsed Joe Biden. Mitt Romney marched in protest for Black Lives Matter. Trump’s own former secretary of defense, James Mattis, described him a “threat to the Constitution.” Trump thrives in the scripted environment of a reality TV show, or in the culture wars of Twitter, but the inescapably real challenges of a pandemic, economic collapse, and police brutality have exposed his utter inadequacy. His obvious unfitness for the job was clear from the beginning, and there's no excuse for failing to recognize it earlier. Still, to any of his supporters now finally willing to state the truth so plainly before them, welcome.

Jennifer Senior also thinks this might be a tipping point and offers an enviably great lede to her column. George Will is at his scathing best. But if you read just one thing on the topic, it should be Anne Applebaum’s long essay contextualizing Republican deference to Trump with her historical research into what makes individuals decide to collaborate with, or dissent from, authoritarian regimes. It was written before the current protests, but is all the more relevant because of them.

Social distancing

To read: This would be an apt time to read Radley Balko’s Rise of the Warrior Cop, which details the militarization of American police forces and how that leads to violent abuses. I’ll also recommend Sharon McGrayne’s The Theory That Would Not Die for a non-mathematical history of Bayesian statistics.

To drink: Whiskey. In a glass. Sorry, it hasn’t week for cocktail writing, but I’ll have more for you soon.

A few final notes

For the past few issues I’ve been directing all book links to Bookshop.org, a new online store with a very cool business model. In short, when you buy from the site, a portion of all sales goes to independent book stores. And if you buy through my links, I also get a referral fee. Its prices aren’t quite as low as Amazon’s, but buying from them supports indie bookstores and this newsletter. For more detail on how it works, read this article from Inside Hook. I’ve also set up a virtual bookstore compiling all the books recommended in the newsletter, which you can go back to any time you’re looking for new reading material.

For more to read on criminal justice reform, I’m posting quite a bit on the Portland Neoliberal Twitter account. Follow us there.

I want to hear from you! Let me know what you’d like to see more or less of in the newsletter, and I’ll try to accommodate it. And if you find it of value, please pass it on to others who might enjoy it by clicking the “share” button at the bottom. The more subscribers and engagement this has, the more time I’ll devote to it.

Newsletter details and obligatory self-promotion

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